Here’s Who’s Most—And Least—Likely To Support Vaccine Mandates In The Workplace

Topline

As the debate over Covid-19 vaccine mandates continues to rage, an analysis of Axios/Ipsos polling data from recent months shows that while a slim majority of 56% of employed U.S. adults continue to support employer vaccine mandates, that support varies sharply based on demographics like vaccination status, party, age and where people live.

Antivaccination protesters holding signs take part in a rally against Covid-19 vaccine mandates, in ... [+] Santa Monica, California, on August 29.

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Vaccinated Democrats are the most supportive of vaccine mandates, with 89% supporting their employer requiring all workers to be vaccinated and 92% supporting a federal mandate stipulating all employers with more than 100 employees must require vaccines or regular Covid-19 tests, as compared to 42% and 40% of vaccinated Republicans, respectively, and 71% and 72% of vaccinated independents.

The unvaccinated are notably more likely to support a federal vaccine-or-test mandate than their own employer demanding vaccines: 54% of unvaccinated Democrats, 12% of Republicans and 25% of independents back the federal rule, versus 43%, 5% and 18% of employed workers in those demographics who are fine with their own company mandating vaccines, respectively.

Support for the federal vaccine-or-test rule goes up with age among Republicans and independents—24% of Republicans ages 18-34 back the requirement versus 34% of those ages 55 and up, for instance—but Democrats ages 35-54 are actually less likely to support the rule than other age groups (80%, versus 88% of those 18-34 and 93% of 55-and-ups).

When it comes to their own employer mandating vaccines, the age trend changes: Vaccinated respondents ages 55 and up were as likely as those ages 35-54 to support the vaccine requirement (both 71%), while unvaccinated 55-and-ups were actually the least likely to back it (10%, as compared with 19% of unvaccinated 18- to 34-year-olds and 16% of 35- to 54-year-olds).

Residents of urban areas are broadly the most supportive of their employer imposing a vaccine mandate, followed by suburban residents and then rural, with 78% of vaccinated urban residents, 70% of suburban and 58% of rural backing a requirement compared to 22%, 15% and 9% of unvaccinated urban, suburban and rural residents, respectively.

While that trend holds for the federal mandate among independents, Democrats in urban areas were actually slightly less supportive than suburbanites and rural residents (86% support for the mandate, versus 88% for both suburban and rural respondents), and Republican urban and suburban residents were equally likely to support the federal rule (both 33%, versus 23% of rural respondents).

Big Number

56%. That’s the total share of employed Axios/Ipsos poll respondents who said they support their employer requiring Covid-19 vaccines, while 58% of all respondents supported the federal vaccine-or-test mandate, according to the most recent wave of polling conducted November 19-22. More recent polling by the Morning Consult indicates similar levels of support, with 55% favoring vaccine mandates for employers as of December 4 (down from 59% in late November).

Tangent

The Ipsos polling data is a combined sample of polling waves from its Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index, in order to get a robust sample of respondents. The polling on support for respondents’ employers requiring vaccines was conducted between August 13 and November 22 among 4,735 employed U.S. adults, and the polling on the federal vaccine-or-test rule was conducted between September 10 and November 22 among 6,279 U.S. adults.

Surprising Fact

Ipsos found that while support for the federal vaccine-or-test mandate held steady overall between the beginning and end of November at 58%, support for the rule declined slightly over the course of the last month among nearly all demographic groups, including even highly supportive ones like vaccinated respondents and Democrats. The only groups for which support actually slightly increased between November 5-8 and November 19-22—though not to a statistically significant degree—were urban residents (from 63% to 66%) and, surprisingly, the unvaccinated, among whom support went up from 24% to 25%.

What To Watch For

A federal appeals court has blocked President Joe Biden’s vaccine-or-test mandate for large employers, along with federal vaccine mandates for government contractors and healthcare workers. Lawsuits challenging the vaccine-or-test rule have now been consolidated and transferred to a different appeals court, which will issue a single ruling on the policy that will apply to all the litigation. It’s likely whatever the court rules will then be appealed to the Supreme Court. If it’s reinstated, the federal employer mandate is set to go into effect January 4.

Key Background

Employer vaccine mandates have been a source of heavy controversy as they’ve been imposed across the country to encourage Covid-19 vaccinations and combat hesitancy, sparking protests and litigation even as many companies have reported high levels of compliance and polling has generally shown majority support. Biden’s mandate for all large private employers has been particularly contentious, with many GOP-led states challenging the measure through litigation, new state policies prohibiting vaccine requirements and, in Florida’s case, trying to leave the federal agency that set the rule entirely. The Senate voted Wednesday night to overturn the policy, with Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Jon Tester (Mont.) joining Republicans in a 52-48 vote. The House is unlikely to follow suit, however, and Biden would veto the bill even if it did pass both chambers. In addition to the federal rule, New York City also announced this week it will require all private employers in the city to mandate vaccinations, which Mayor Bill de Blasio said was the first rule of its kind in the country.

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